Series 01

Invert, Always Invert

"What would have to be true for this to fail?"

Charlie Munger's most underrated mental model applied to industry analysis. Instead of asking how companies succeed, this series asks how they fail — and whether the outcome was avoidable.

Organon: Was the Failure Avoidable?

OGN fell from $32 to $9 over five years. This analysis dissects 15 key decision points — interest rate headwinds, BD missteps, and operational drift — and asks: was the outcome avoidable?

Series 02

Coming Soon

It's past midnight.

I hope you're doing alright.

Take care of yourself.